Combining It All
The next analysis that was done was to repeat the
previous analysis but for the situation where 50% of your income is provided by a fixed
annuity component and the remaining directly from your portfolio (at the beginning of
retirement). I generated the same 12 graphs as I did in the Market Risk chapter, but the
assumptions on initial assets and income requirements were:
A fixed annuity of $22,000/year
An inflation adjusted income requirement of $44,000
A starting portfolio of value $716,700 (22,000x9.85 +
22,000/.044). The 9.85 multiplier was chosen because that is the minimum value required to
take the annuity case (Fixed Annuity Chapter) to zero failures.
I used the same algorithm as before for determining the
withdrawal for expenses each year (maximum withdrawal of 4.4% of assets scaled upward each
year to an ending maximum of 7% in the 30th year).
The analysis data in this section is the same as the
Market Risk section.
The number of times that the annual withdrawal had to be
reduced by more 10% of the original withdrawal amount (after inflation adjustment). Click Here for Income Volatility.
The largest income drop encountered in each of the 30
year retirement scenarios. Click Here for Worst Year.
The average inflation adjusted withdrawal amount. Click Here for Average Income.
The ending inflation adjusted portfolio value (note that
this withdrawal methodology means that the ending value will never be zero). Click Here for Ending Value.
A few observations:
The fixed annuity does reduce the volatility of your
annual income, as would be expected. Note that the average volatility of this case
vs. the Market Risk case was reduced more than the worst case value (compare the average
values vs. worst case values for the two cases to see this).
The "optimum" asset allocation is moved toward
the equities side as compared to the Market Risk study (due to the Bond-like
characteristics of the fixed annuity).
The withdrawal algorithm that was used is intended to
reduce your withdrawals in years that your portfolio has dropped relative to your target
(inflation adjusted) withdrawal. But there will be no adjustment in the earliest years
since your initial withdrawal is only $22,000 (3% of assets) and I set the lower limit at
4.4% of total assets. I havent done any work to further optimize this algorithm.
Quite frankly Im not sure if further optimization has real practical value. But from
a strictly mathematical optimization point of view, lowering the lower limit is probably